TrendForce Warns Notebook Shipments Could Fall in 2027 on Component Costs
TrendForce projects a low-single-digit decline in global notebook shipments for 2027, with a possible high-single-digit drop if DRAM and CPU prices stay high.
TrendForce released a report on October 9, 2026 projecting that global notebook shipments could decline in 2027, with the market's main risk shifting from supply constraints to the impact of rising costs on demand. According to the report, the decline would be in the low-single-digit percentage range, but could reach the high-single digits if DRAM and CPU prices remain elevated and manufacturers pass those costs on to consumers.
The report says notebook shipments in 2026 were supported by improved CPU availability, early purchasing by manufacturers, and replacement demand brought forward from later periods.
Component costs and supply
TrendForce attributes the pressure to memory and processor pricing. DRAM supply is likely to stay tight next year because of AI-related demand, while PC DRAM faces limited supply growth. NAND Flash supply constraints, by contrast, are expected to ease in the second half of 2027 as new capacity comes online.
The report cites the cost structure of a mainstream notebook as an example: in Q3 2026, CPU, DRAM, and SSD accounted for 68% of the bill of materials for an unnamed model with a US$900 MSRP.
TrendForce also estimates China's share of global notebook production could rise. In October 2026, the firm said the share was 76% in 2025 and estimated at 79% in 2026, and it projects the figure could exceed 80% in 2027.
Quick answers
How much could global notebook shipments fall in 2027?
TrendForce projects a low-single-digit percentage decline, with the possibility of a high-single-digit decline if DRAM and CPU prices remain elevated and costs are passed to consumers.
Why are notebook costs rising?
TrendForce says DRAM supply is likely to stay tight next year due to AI-related demand, while PC DRAM faces limited supply growth.
When will NAND Flash supply constraints ease?
TrendForce expects NAND Flash supply constraints to ease in the second half of 2027 with new capacity coming online.