Analyst: Game Pass to Cannibalize Most Gears of War: E-Day Xbox Revenue

Gears of War: E-Day has sold more than 120,000 copies on Steam, generating over $7 million, according to a new report from Alinea Analytics analyst Rhys Elliott. But Elliott argues that most of the game's revenue on Xbox will be cannibalized by Game Pass, Microsoft's subscription service.

Elliott also said E-Day is unlikely to ever reach 1 million copies sold on Steam. Still, the game has sold more than twice what Halo: Campaign Evolved managed over a similar period, according to the report, which was covered by GameSpot.

Beyond the sales split, Elliott criticized Microsoft's decision to cancel a PlayStation 5 port of E-Day. He said the company should not have done so and expects a PS5 version to arrive at some point.

Game Pass math under scrutiny

The report lands amid broader questions about Game Pass's effect on full-game sales. In 2023, Microsoft admitted that putting games into Game Pass cannibalizes full-game sales. Xbox CEO Asha Sharma has since said the company's bet on Game Pass did not work out and that Microsoft might "window" other titles going forward.

Microsoft's Activision division no longer puts new Call of Duty games into Game Pass at launch, with Modern Warfare 4 not coming to Game Pass until Fall 2027. Elliott previously said E-Day and Clockwork Revolution are being "sent out to die" due to Xbox exclusivity.

Microsoft denied canceling a PS5 version of E-Day at the last minute but did not deny its existence. Microsoft's Aaron Greenberg has said E-Day is not a timed-exclusive for Xbox. In 2021, Greenberg said Starfield was not a timed-exclusive on Xbox, but it later came to PS5. Gears of War: E-Day arrives on October 6, with early access starting October 1.