Apple to Grow Shipments in 2026 as Market Shrinks, GF Securities Says
GF Securities analysts project Apple will be the only major smartphone maker to grow shipments in 2026, even as global shipments fall 14.2% to 1.08 billion units.
GF Securities analysts Jeff Pu and Henry Huang project Apple will be the only major smartphone manufacturer to grow smartphone shipments in 2026, according to an investor note reported by 9to5mac.com. The note forecasts Apple shipping 257 million units, a 4% year-over-year gain.
The same note projects Samsung will ship 241 million smartphones in 2026, essentially unchanged from 2025, while total global smartphone shipments are expected to drop 14.2% to 1.08 billion units. Apple's share of global shipments is projected to climb to 24% in 2026, up from 20% in 2025 and 19% in 2024.
The analysts also cut build plans for two upcoming devices. The iPhone Duo's 2026 EMS build plan was reduced from 7 million to 6 million units due to hinge constraints, while the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max build plan was lowered to 72 million units because of constraints with the adjustable-aperture camera.
The note reiterates that the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max have received a lukewarm reception, partly attributed to competition from the iPhone Duo and criticism of their weight. The iPhone Duo has gone up for pre-order and is already showing delivery estimates stretching into late January in the US.
GF Securities maintained a Hold rating on Apple stock with a price target of $369. Apple shares closed at $343.46, up 0.43%.
Quick answers
What does GF Securities project for Apple's 2026 iPhone shipments?
The analysts project Apple will ship 257 million units in 2026, a 4% year-over-year gain and the only growth among major smartphone makers.
Why were iPhone Duo and iPhone 18 Pro build plans cut?
The iPhone Duo's 2026 EMS build plan was cut from 7 million to 6 million units due to hinge constraints, and the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max plan was lowered to 72 million units due to adjustable-aperture camera constraints.
When will the iPhone Duo ship?
The iPhone Duo is up for pre-order and delivery estimates in the US stretch into late January.