Epoch AI: AI Costs Falling Faster Than Moore's Law
Epoch AI report says AI costs drop just under 50% per quarter, outpacing DNA sequencing and lithium batteries.
AI research firm Epoch AI has published a report finding that the cost of artificial intelligence is falling faster than Moore's Law and other transformational technologies. According to the report, AI costs decline by just under 50% every quarter, making the technology 13 times cheaper per year.
The report places the pace of AI cost decline at four times faster than DNA sequencing and 18 times faster than lithium batteries. Epoch AI's comparison draws on the trajectories of those technologies to frame how quickly AI economics are shifting.
The report cites OpenAI's GPT o3, released in January 2025, which scored 75% on the GPQA Diamond test at $0.30 per question. It contrasts that with OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Luna, which the report says scores the same on the GPQA Diamond test at $0.0004 per question.
Longer-run context
In its background figures, the report notes that compute costs fell hundreds of billions of times over 60 years from 1940. It also states that lithium battery prices fell about 100 times between 1991 and 2024.
DNA sequencing costs fell by an even greater extent than AI, according to the report, but over just over 20 years. The findings were reported by tomshardware.com.
Quick answers
How fast are AI costs falling?
Epoch AI's report says AI costs fall just under 50% every quarter and 13 times cheaper per year.
How does AI cost decline compare with other technologies?
The report says AI cost decline is four times faster than DNA sequencing and 18 times faster than lithium batteries.
What examples does the report give?
It cites OpenAI's GPT o3 scoring 75% on GPQA Diamond at $0.30 per question and GPT-5.6 Luna scoring the same at $0.0004 per question.