Gartner warns AI infrastructure write-offs could top $3.5 trillion by 2030
The research firm says planned spending of nearly $7 trillion through 2030 far outruns projected AI application revenue of $3.6 trillion.
Gartner has warned that AI infrastructure companies that maintain their current pace of investment could be forced to write off more than $3.5 trillion in losses by the end of 2030, according to a report by TechGene.
AI companies are expected to spend close to $1 trillion on infrastructure in 2026, with an additional $6 trillion in investment planned from 2027 through 2030, TechGene reported.
On the revenue side, Gartner projects that AI data center operators will generate $8.5 trillion in cumulative revenue by 2030. But enterprise and consumer AI application revenue is expected to reach only $3.6 trillion at current growth rates, leaving a gap of nearly $5 trillion.
Under current investment trends, Gartner estimates that more than $4 trillion in assets could be subject to write-down by 2032, and that the industry will struggle to achieve a 12% return on invested capital by the end of 2032.
The research firm also predicts that more than 80% of neocloud companies will not be able to operate independently by 2030, a point Network World cited in its coverage of hyperscalers versus neoclouds.
Quick answers
How large could AI infrastructure write-offs be?
Gartner warns that companies keeping their current investment pace could write off more than $3.5 trillion in losses by the end of 2030.
How much are AI companies spending on infrastructure?
Close to $1 trillion is expected in 2026, with another $6 trillion planned from 2027 through 2030, according to TechGene.
What does Gartner project for neocloud companies?
More than 80% of neocloud companies will not be able to operate independently by 2030.