Study Finds No Broad AI Job Displacement Among Recent Graduates
A CESifo working paper finds no evidence of widespread displacement or reduced hiring of recent college graduates due to AI, despite concerns from tech and finance leaders.
A new CESifo working paper argues there is no evidence of significant widespread displacement or reduced hiring of recent college graduates due to AI. The paper, titled "The Early Impacts of AI on Employment Among Recent College Graduates," was authored by researchers Robert Fairlie and Jane Wu.
The researchers focused on recent graduates because changes in labor demand may first appear through reduced hiring. They used microdata from the US Census Current Population Survey to examine unemployment trends among Bachelor's degree recipients aged 22 to 25 who were not pursuing higher degrees. They looked at year-over-year and seasonal trends going back to 2022.
The study cites a Census survey showing a sharp increase in firms replacing a large number of employee tasks with AI. However, the researchers found no evidence of a corresponding surge in unemployment among the recent graduate cohort they studied.
The findings contrast with recent warnings from prominent figures. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said in March that AI's speed of change could lead to the highest unemployment rate among college graduates in years. Marc Andreessen said AI until December 2025 was not good enough to do the jobs being cut.
A separate Stanford University study found entry-level employment lagging in AI-impacted occupations. The CESifo paper was reported by arstechnica.com.
Quick answers
What did the CESifo paper find about AI and recent graduate employment?
The paper found no evidence of significant widespread displacement or reduced hiring of recent college graduates due to AI.
Who authored the CESifo working paper?
Researchers Robert Fairlie and Jane Wu authored the paper titled "The Early Impacts of AI on Employment Among Recent College Graduates."
What data did the researchers use?
They used microdata from the US Census Current Population Survey, examining unemployment trends among Bachelor's degree recipients aged 22 to 25 not pursuing higher degrees, looking at year-over-year and seasonal trends going back to 2022.