FT warns AI data center overcapacity could hit markets as CoreWeave, Nebius shares fall

The Financial Times reported that AI data centers are in short supply at present, but long-term overinvestment in the sector could deliver a major shock to stock markets. The warning coincided with sharp declines in the share prices of AI cloud startups CoreWeave and Nebius this week.

The scale of spending behind the buildout is substantial. The five hyperscalers — Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle — are expected to spend nearly $800 billion on capital expenditure this year, roughly double last year's figure.

Demand for computing capacity remains visible in rental pricing. According to analysis firm SemiAnalysis, spot rental rates for Nvidia B200 chips exceed $6 per hour, up about 50% from six months ago.

Some operators argue the investment can pay back quickly. SpaceX said in its first earnings report after listing that recent contract revenue alone could recover the full cost of building its computing facilities within a year.

Revenue forecasts fall short of spending needs

The Brookings Institution estimated that AI service spending must reach $3.7 trillion per year by 2032 for data center operators to earn adequate returns. Gartner expects cumulative AI revenue from now to 2030 to reach $8.5 trillion, while forecasting actual AI revenue in the same period at only $3.6 trillion.