Steam wishlist conversion rates roughly halved since 2023, analysis finds

Chris Zukowski, who runs the developer marketing resource How To Market A Game, published an analysis on October 13 finding that wishlist conversion rates on Steam have roughly halved in recent years, according to Automaton Media. The study drew on sales data for 160 titles, provided by developers and gathered by Zukowski himself.

Conversion rates measure the share of wishlist registrations that turn into purchases. According to the analysis, the rate fell in every period measured: one month, six months and one year after launch.

At the one-month and six-month points, conversion rates were roughly half as high in the 2023-2025 group as in the 2020-2022 group. Zukowski concluded that wishlist inflation on Steam is actually happening.

The analysis also found that the correlation between wishlist counts and first-month sales stayed at a similar level across both periods, meaning wishlist totals still tracked launch sales even as the conversion rate dropped.

Earlier wishlist data

Steam Next Fest began in the 2020-2022 period, when online events became common during the COVID-19 pandemic. In December 2021, Valve reported that wishlists registered during Steam Next Fest had a median conversion rate 500% higher than wishlists registered in the two weeks before the event.