Aurora targets 30,000 driverless trucks and $5B revenue by 2030

Aurora expects to have more than 30,000 self-driving trucks on the road generating $5 billion in annual revenue by the end of 2030, the company said at its analyst and investor day on September 23. CFO David Maday said the 30,000-truck target is not aspirational.

The company expects to end 2026 with 200 driverless trucks and an $80 million revenue run rate, then grow to more than 1,000 trucks a year later. It expects to reach breakeven gross margins on a run-rate basis in the first half of 2027 with around 500 trucks on the road.

Aurora's transportation-as-a-service model, limited to about 500 trucks, charges customers about $2 per mile including a fuel surcharge. Next year, the company plans to move to a driver-as-a-service model with a per-mile subscription fee of about $0.85.

Its third-generation hardware is expected at the end of 2027 and will be mass-produced by Aumovio, formerly known as Continental. Aumovio is financing the hardware kits and will service and repair them for customers.

By 2030, Aurora expects to expand beyond a few states in the South to the vast majority of the continental U.S. Maday confirmed Aurora still plans to eventually enter the robotaxi market.

The four major truck manufacturers produce between 250,000 and 300,000 new trucks a year. Aurora shares closed down 12.42% at $5.29 on Monday, according to techcrunch.com.